Some probably overthought guidelines on how to determine exactly what about the defender caused the attack to miss.
https://mindweaverpg.wordpress.com/2022/12/08/why-did-the-attack-fail/
The party ended up getting a little sidetracked by a whole nest of ogres.
#playreport
https://mindweaverpg.wordpress.com/2023/06/30/play-report-kotb-barrier-march-session-52-surprise-ogres/
Searching for more information about the lay of the land around the bugbear crag, the party ends up ambushing a patrol, but when the ambush doesn't get surprise, the battle is far more even than intended.